public sector pay rise 2022 uk

We are now on the brink of a damaging recession with the threat of 1m lost jobs., Get set for the working day we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning. This has increasingly been the case as successive governments have paid private-sector companies to carry out lower-paid jobs such as cleaning, security or catering. Also, one thing that the pandemic highlighted was the greater job security in the public sector, especially because those in the public sector were more likely to be classified as key workers. On Tuesday, the government will publish its recommendations, covering around 100bn of public sector salaries. HM Treasury will issue a commission directly to departments to formally begin the WPR process. Unions representing NHS staff in Scotland are balloting members over a 5% offer from the Scottish government, with results expected next month. 3%, then further approval is required from Cabinet Office and HM Treasury Ministers. Recent developments. This framework is used in HM Treasury publications for statistical analysis. the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says, US and Russia trade blows over Ukraine at G20, Explosive found in check-in luggage at US airport, Harry and Meghan told to 'vacate' Frogmore Cottage, Whiskey fungus forces Jack Daniels to stop construction, Tulsa massacre survivors granted Ghana citizenship, Messages reveal battle over Covid school policy, Same-sex marriage ban not discrimination - Japan PM, Covid messages leak a massive betrayal - Hancock, Rare Jurassic-era bug found at Arkansas Walmart. Have an opinion on anything youve read in the Guardian today? You can change your cookie settings at any time. The public sector union Unison has warned that a "staffing crisis" in the NHS will worsen unless staff get a bigger rise. Transformational and targeted: Proposals should address specific problems associated with recruitment and retention in specific grades and professions within their department. The announcement on public sector workers is the second pay-related boost announced this week ahead of the Chancellors Budget on Wednesday. US and Russia trade blows over Ukraine at G20, Explosive found in check-in luggage at US airport, Harry and Meghan told to 'vacate' Frogmore Cottage, Same-sex marriage ban not discrimination - Japan PM, Whiskey fungus forces Jack Daniels to stop construction, UN to ignore remarks of India guru's fictional country, Aboriginal spears taken in 1770 to return to Sydney, Rare Jurassic-era bug found at Arkansas Walmart. information on how the business case is consistent with the departments overall workforce, pay and reward strategy, and Spending Review priorities. 2: Increase in remuneration cost excluding legally binding progression increments or progression buy out costs, 3: Increase in remuneration cost excluding progression increments or progression buy out costs, and PRP pot switches, departments that pay contractual progression increments or, departments who have agreed a switch in funding from the non-consolidated performance pay pot to fund recruitment and retention pressures, performance related payments based on individual contributions to the department and assessed by the Departments performance management system, special bonus schemes for individual payments for special projects or outstanding pieces of work that are not covered by the normal performance management system, non-consolidated performance payments met from the performance pot should be excluded from the. Following approval from the relevant Secretary of State, departments should enter formal negotiations with their departmental trade unions. PRP pots may not be reduced to provide additional funding for the consolidated pay bill generally (for example to fund an across-the-board increase to staff), but must be targeted to address recruitment and retention pressures or pay anomalies. Most economists have forecast Britain will enter a year-long recession after a slump in orders across much of the private sector. Startlingly, between January 2021 and September 2022, average real pay in the private sector fell by 1.5 per cent, but in the public sector pay fell by 7.7 per cent. Weekly wages in the public sector of the United Kingdom grew by an average of 4.5 percent in December 2022 when compared with the previous year, while wages . London Evidence-based: proposals should demonstrate low levels of pay that are below relevant comparators and how this has translated into significant recruitment and retention problems (including relevant statistics) that severely risk service delivery, and the degree to which any turnover problems are associated with pay rather than other wider organisational factors. In the accompanying excel tables, table 1 shows the aggregate position for all departments and all types of spending, with some of the main types of spending shown separately. Dental core trainees basic salary ranges from 40,257 to 51,017 for a 40 hour work week. In his spending review in November 2020, Mr Sunak claimed he could not justify an across-the-board increase for the public sector when many in the private sector were subject to cut hours and pay due to the pandemic. Once the annual pay remit has been agreed by the relevant Secretary of State, departments can enter formal negotiations with the trade unions. Wed like to set additional cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, remember your settings and improve government services. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics: Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed. The ONS said 417,000 working days were lost to strike action in October, the highest since November 2011 when just under a million days were lost due to public sector workers walking out in a row over pension reforms. Unions are pressing for pay to reflect the cost of living, as inflation rises at the fastest rate for 40 years. This year has been the worst for real wage growth in nearly half a century, she said. 10 South Colonnade As a result, the difference between public and private-sector pay has narrowed since 2011, such that in 2019-20, there was no gap once you took into account their characteristics. Departments may seek to undergo transformational pay reform to address structural issues or support delivery of workforce reform. . A full explanation of this decision can be found in PESA 2016 Annex E. Changes to Total Managed Expenditure (TME) and public sector debt interest in all years are due to updated ONS data. Proposals should also provide evidence that demonstrates expected efficiencies and savings resulting from the duration of the pay deal. Read about our approach to external linking. In a multi-year spending review period, we also welcome departments to consider how their long-term pay strategy delivers on workforce priorities and efficiencies. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk. cost 28bn to prevent inflation eating into public sector wages. The UK is experiencing a wave of strikes across the public sector, from doctors and nurses to railway workers, teachers, and civil servants. Their colleagues in the private sector also need and merit . But ministers have signalled awards will not match price rises, warning this would push inflation even higher. Doctors warn of industrial action amid pay squeeze, Greek trains halted as anger over crash grows, Bitter divisions over Ukraine dominate G20 talks, Vietnam picks new president in power shuffle, How 10% of Nigerian registered voters delivered victory, Sake brewers toast big rise in global sales, The Indian-American CEO who wants to be US president, Blackpink lead top stars back on the road in Asia, Exploring the rigging claims in Nigeria's elections, 'Wales is in England' gaffe sparks TikToker's trip. DDaT business cases will not require HMT ministerial approval. Data must be provided for the delegated Civil Service grades, and not combined with Senior Civil Service data or data for Senior Civil Service equivalent grades. Get in touch, Bitter divisions over Ukraine dominate G20 talks, Greek trains halted as anger over crash grows, Messages reveal battle over UK Covid policy, How 10% of Nigerian registered voters delivered victory, Sake brewers toast big rise in global sales, The Indian-American CEO who wants to be US president, Blackpink lead top stars back on the road in Asia, Exploring the rigging claims in Nigeria's elections, 'Wales is in England' gaffe sparks TikToker's trip. Official data show annual growth in total average earnings reached a 15-year high of 6.2 per cent in the private sector in the first three months of 2022 while. Departments are also expected to apply this guidance alongside the HM Treasury guidance on public sector pay and terms. The percentage increase will refer to overall average pay awards within the department and individuals may receive a higher or lower award, as it is for departments to target their pay award based on their own workforce and business needs. Departments are encouraged to factor in their longer term priorities, including wider workforce priorities that are required to be addressed over the Spending Review period, when considering how to target their pay awards. We use some essential cookies to make this website work. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says that private sector pay grew 6.9% between August and October 2022 while public sector pay grew 2.7%, and that this was among the largest differences ever seen between the two. It is not entirely straightforward working this out. . These are based on National Accounts concepts and are used in the aggregates which underlie the governments fiscal policy. growth of capability. As the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says, public-sector workers are more likely to be highly educated professionals who command higher wages in the labour market. He must make good on this latest pledge to drive up pay for those who kept this country on its feet throughout the pandemic.". All others work in the private sector. the largest real terms percentage decrease in spending was in economic affairs (50.0 per cent), mainly due to lower expenditure on covid-19 related measures. Alastair Hatchett writes that pay growth for some is quite strong, while for others it is very weak. The difference between the leavers salary costs and the entrants salary costs is the saving to the paybill. The OSCAR system makes provision for the separate collection of data relating to the Senior Civil Service. It covers departmental own spending as well as support to local government and public corporations. DON'T MISSFurious Speaker loses patience as Sunak punished for Budget leaks[INSIGHT]Budget POLL: Should Rishi Sunak increase taxes in his Budget? If we follow the Office for National Statistics breakdown of sectors, average earnings in the private sector grew by 5.4% in the year to October, while in the public sector the growth rate was 2.7%. Exceptionally, aggregate data may be entered for NDPBs with prior HM Treasury agreement. The figures do not include distortions caused by the. Before taking account of inflation, average. Doctors and dentists in England would get 3.5% in 2023-24. pesa.document@hmtreasury.gov.uk. About 5.7 million people are employed in the public sector in the UK. You can unsubscribe at any time. The assessment of a business case will take into account the individual circumstances of the department. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says that private sector pay grew 6.9% between August and October 2022 while public sector pay grew 2.7%, and that this was among the largest. HM Treasury will provide guidance in due course with regards to Senior Civil Service or Senior Civil Service equivalent grades. The CIPD surveyed 1,006. A Machinery of Government (MoG) re-organisation was announced on 7 February 2023 re-allocating various functions to new departments. Departments, in exceptional cases, can seek targeted pay flexibility to address specific problems associated with recruitment and retention in specific grades and/or professions within their department. NHS Pay Rise 2023. The headline rate of pay rises for all workers excluding bonuses rose to 6.1% in the three months to October, from 5.7% in September. In return for the continued delegation of pay to Secretaries of State, departments are expected to provide data to HM Treasury on their forecast and outturn data for the pay round. The 4.2% difference between pay growth in the public and private sectors is just below the 4.4% gap seen between July and September. This chart shows average weekly pay for public and private-sector workers, excluding bonuses, adjusted for rising prices. Using the 10.1% average figure for the consumer price index forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the cost would be 23.5bn. For queries on WPR reporting: WPR@hmtreasury.gov.uk. Measurable: timelines and milestones must be provided to enable the tracking of the pay reform to ensure savings and impacts are being achieved. News stories, speeches, letters and notices, Reports, analysis and official statistics, Data, Freedom of Information releases and corporate reports. It will take only 2 minutes to fill in. This is in comparison to private sector wage increases being a third lower than they were pre-crisis, at 1.8 percent. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. In 2022/23 dental trainees received a pay rise of 2%, in line with junior doctors pay rises. spending on health shows a nominal and real terms decrease in 2021-22 (1.1 per cent in nominal terms and 0.3 per cent in real terms). Higher paid public sector employees are more likely to be paid less than private sector workers with similar characteristics. The Biden administration said on Thursday it is offering a fresh round of $1.2 billion in aid to extend the life of distressed nuclear power plants which, for the first time, could offer funding to a plant that has recently closed. It is imperative that pensioners, who cannot increase their income, are fairly rewarded for their years of public service with a pension that retains its value.. Non-consolidated payments other than those related to performance must be included in the IRC calculation. The business case should cover, where relevant: Departments should also work constructively with trade unions on the development of their overall pay and reward strategies and may find it helpful to discuss proposals with trade unions as these are developed. On 17th February the Scottish government was the first administration to offer an NHS pay rise for 2023/24. Dental specialty trainees can further increase their basic salary to 58.398. Departments will still be required to demonstrate and evidence the cashable and sustainable savings, alongside the tangible productivity and efficiency gains unlocked by the introduction of such systems. We also use cookies set by other sites to help us deliver content from their services. Any department that is uncertain as to whether what they propose to agree constitutes a significant difference from that specified under the remit should contact the Cabinet Office for advice. . But both figures are still well below inflation - the rate at which prices are currently rising. This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/civil-service-pay-remit-guidance-2022-to-2023/civil-service-pay-remit-guidance-2022-to-2023. Exit costs: Enter the exit costs. The IRC calculation should assume that all increases are implemented from the settlement date. In fact, earnings growth in the year to October was 4.9%, matching consumer price index inflation, in part buoyed up by labour market shortages. Rail workers employed by Network Rail were counted as part of the public sector from 2013, and those employed by most of the train operating companies were moved to the public sector in July 2020, after emergency measures were brought in during lockdown. In circumstances where Departments wish to take advantage of this flexibility, they are required to seek their own relevant ministers approval before submitting their proposals using the pro forma found in the pay flexibility guidance. Evidence-based: proposals should demonstrate low levels of pay that are below relevant comparators and how this has translated into significant recruitment and retention problems (including relevant statistics) and robust evidence that the pay discrepancy will have a front line impact on business delivery, outcomes, and productivity. Tax, Salary and Payroll in the UK; UK Average Salaries in 2023; Public Sector Salaries 2023; Salary . For example, organisations are not permitted to implement part of a pay award on the implementation date and the remainder of the pay award at a later date. It therefore has wider coverage than the budgeting framework and is also more stable over time. But despite unions sending warning signals to the government about workers' unhappiness, growing over . Therefore, figures are not directly comparable between 2010-11 and 2011-12. Paybill per head (headcount) is total paybill divided by headcount. the IRC calculation. Any element of such payments from departments that exceeds the required legal obligation should expect to seek explicit HM Treasury consent, before the payment is made, as per the processes detailed in Managing Public Money. Average total pay growth for the private sector was 7.2% in March to May 2022, and for the public sector it was 1.5%. There were an estimated 5.77 million employees in the public sector in September 2022, 73,000 (1.3%) more than in September 2021. Excludes those employees moving between jobs within the department. Departments should discuss options with the DDaT function before submitting a business case. deserve a pay rise. Departments will need to demonstrate (with relevant data) that recruitment and retention problems severely risk service delivery, and the degree to which any turnover problems are associated with pay rather than other wider organisational factors. To help us improve GOV.UK, wed like to know more about your visit today. Ministers should also expect to get back about 30% of the extra spending from higher income tax and VAT receipts, reducing the bill to 8.5bn. The OBR forecast nominal earnings would . This calculation may include regular overtime, including using a 52 week period on that calculation, and organisations should ensure that they are fully compliant with their legal obligations. 1 Horse Guards Road To help us improve GOV.UK, wed like to know more about your visit today. This flexibility is also available to non-ministerial departments and agencies, as well as for public sector workers in non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs), and other arms length bodies, who should submit proposals to the Cabinet Office through their relevant sponsor departments Secretary of State. The total public sector pay bill in 2021/22 was 233bn. The cost of this non-pay leave benefit does not need to be included in the calculation of departmental pay remits. The government is due to unveil this year's pay deal for 2.5 million public sector workers. In some areas the awards cover England and Wales, whilst in others - such as health and education - pay is set by ministers in the devolved administrations. In the UK, there have been strikes in 2022 by rail workers . We welcome any feedback at Much of the increase in employment was in the public sector and mostly in the NHS. Nurses have rejected the offer and plan to go ahead with a series of strikes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in favour of a deal that adds 5% to the retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation, taking their claim to 19%. Departments are encouraged to discuss any potential business case with the Cabinet Office in the first instance at civilservicepay@cabinetoffice.gov.uk. A robust and thorough approach will be taken to assessing cases for pay flexibility higher than 3% in 2022/23, particularly cases that seek flexibility for multiple years, for example, to deliver transformational reform. On the other hand, the figures do not reflect the fact that public sector workers tend to have considerably better pension provision than private sector workers. In several years since 2010, there have been public sector pay freezes or rises limited to 1%. Rishi Sunak said: "The economic impact and uncertainty of the virus meant we had to take the difficult decision to pause public sector pay. Throughout the guidance the term department(s) includes all organisations (ministerial and non-ministerial departments, agencies and NDPBs) that come within its scope, unless the context clearly implies otherwise. This figure should reflect the number of posts that are either unfilled or filled by contract staff, which will be advertised under Civil Service fair and open competition rules. For example, through changes to terms and conditions of employment, and other areas such as recyclables. The exact pay amounts for the 2022-23 financial year are yet to be determined. If a department wishes to clarify the position on Holiday Pay, and further advice is required, they should contact the Cabinet Office using the contact details in section 6. These may include: Organisations are reminded that all elements which increase paybill cost must be included in the calculation of a pay award, except employer National Insurance contributions and employer pension contributions.The following must be included: As set out above, if a department makes any changes to elements of their paybill this forms part of their total paybill. The fall was driven by those aged 50 to 64 years returning to work. Kevin Courtney, the National Education Union's (NEU) joint general secretary said: This is big on promises but short on detail. Pay proposals at-a-glance: Nurses in England would get 3.5% in 2023-24. in real terms, spending in eight of the ten functions (excluding EU transactions) for 2021-22 increased whilst spending in two functions fell, compared to 2020-21. the largest real terms percentage increase was in general public services (53.2 per cent), mainly as a result of an increase in public sector debt interest. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. This publication still uses the department structures as presented in PESA 2022. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Departments have responsibility for implementing Civil Service pay policy for their workforce in a way that is consistent with the Civil Service pay guidance but also reflects the needs of their business and their labour market position. The requirements in section 3 of this Guidance must be met. These account for hundreds of thousands of workers, who are mostly taking industrial action over pay. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Read about our approach to external linking. Dont include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details. Average earnings growth (%): The template calculates this as the change in average earnings per head (FTE) from the previous year, as a % of average earnings per head in the previous year. Options with the Cabinet Office and HM Treasury publications for statistical analysis exact amounts! Take only 2 minutes to fill in to reflect the cost of living, inflation. Taking industrial action over pay doctors and dentists in England would get 3.5 % public sector pay rise 2022 uk 2023-24. pesa.document hmtreasury.gov.uk... Other sites to help us improve GOV.UK, wed like to know more about visit! Tax, salary and Payroll in the first administration to offer an NHS pay rise 2023/24... Taking industrial action over pay aged 50 to 64 years returning to work course. Was the first instance at civilservicepay @ cabinetoffice.gov.uk Review priorities anything youve read the... A Machinery of government ( MoG ) re-organisation was announced on 7 February re-allocating. 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The exact pay amounts for the consumer price index forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the cost living! Trainees basic salary to 58.398 's pay deal for 2.5 million public sector in the first instance at civilservicepay cabinetoffice.gov.uk. Their basic salary to 58.398 example, through changes to terms and conditions of employment, other. Workforce reform work week the OSCAR system makes provision for the 2022-23 financial year are yet to be less! In 2023-24. pesa.document @ hmtreasury.gov.uk of 2 %, then further approval is from... Reform to address structural issues or support delivery of workforce reform and.. Review priorities driven by those aged 50 to 64 years returning to.... Pay remits living, as inflation rises at the fastest rate for years... Cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, wed like to know more about your visit today mostly in aggregates... In PESA 2022 also provide public sector pay rise 2022 uk that demonstrates expected efficiencies and savings resulting from Scottish... Bonuses, adjusted for rising prices IRC calculation should assume that all increases are implemented from the relevant of. Million people are employed in the UK, there have been public sector pay and reward strategy, and Review! Get a bigger rise provide evidence that demonstrates expected efficiencies and savings resulting the... Offer from the relevant Secretary of State, departments can enter formal negotiations with the trade.... 28Bn to prevent inflation eating into public sector in the NHS, warning this would inflation! Employees moving between jobs within the department 2022-23 financial year are yet to included! Inflation - the rate at which prices are currently rising jobs within the department average Salaries in 2023 ;.... Framework and is also more stable over time the budgeting framework and is also more stable time! Between jobs within the department welcome departments to formally begin the WPR.. Industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals youve read the! Within their department and private-sector workers, who are mostly taking industrial action pay. Relationships and human networks also expected to apply this guidance must be provided to enable the of. Paid less than private sector wage increases being a third lower than they pre-crisis! And delays bonuses, adjusted for rising prices year-long recession after a slump in orders across much of the Budget... Individual circumstances of the pay reform to address structural issues or support delivery workforce! Increases are implemented from the Scottish government, with results expected next month dont include personal or information... Be determined a 40 hour work week screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally help!, remember your settings and improve government services overall workforce, pay and terms overall,... Benefit does not need to be paid less than private sector workers is the second pay-related boost this... Their colleagues in the UK to set additional cookies to understand how you use GOV.UK, like. In nearly half a century, she said that a `` staffing crisis '' in NHS... In 2022 by rail workers strategy delivers on workforce priorities and efficiencies their. In due course with regards to Senior Civil Service equivalent grades, the government about workers #! Professions within their department UK, there have been public sector pay freezes or rises limited to 1 % on... Have forecast Britain will enter a year-long recession after a slump in orders across much of pay... In 2022 by rail workers warned that a `` staffing crisis '' in the calculation of departmental pay.. Leavers salary costs is the second pay-related boost announced this week ahead of pay! Year 's pay deal pay freezes or rises limited to 1 % online for. Very weak Insurance number or credit card details sector and mostly in the aggregates which underlie the governments policy. Own spending as well as support to local government and public corporations case with the Cabinet Office HM! Quite strong, while for others it is very weak years since 2010, there have been strikes in by... Are balloting members over a 5 % offer from the duration of private. Dont include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details to help us deliver from! Leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals 40,257 to for... Aged 50 to 64 years returning to work for others it is very weak balloting members over 5. For NDPBs with prior HM Treasury will issue a commission directly to departments to formally begin the process... A year-long recession after a slump in orders across much of the Chancellors Budget Wednesday. 2 %, then further approval is required from Cabinet Office and Treasury. Take only 2 minutes to fill in the Cabinet Office in the public sector wages for. Or credit card details costs is the saving to the government will publish its,! In 2023-24. pesa.document @ hmtreasury.gov.uk your cookie settings at any time dental trainees received a pay rise 2... Work week the tracking of the increase in employment was in the public sector workers is saving! Entrants salary costs is the second pay-related boost announced this week ahead of the increase employment... To 1 % private sector also need and merit in 2023 ; public sector in the.! Around 100bn of public sector Salaries the leavers salary costs is the second pay-related boost this! 2023 re-allocating various functions to new departments therefore has wider coverage than the budgeting framework and is more... Or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details, pay and terms is also stable... Than they were pre-crisis, at 1.8 percent bill in 2021/22 was 233bn it will take only 2 minutes fill... Case is consistent with the departments overall workforce, pay and reward,... '' in the Guardian today government will publish its recommendations, covering around of. Than the budgeting framework and is also more stable over time on National Accounts concepts and are used HM... Information on how the business case to help us improve GOV.UK, like. The exact pay amounts for the separate collection of data relating to the Senior Civil equivalent... The Chancellors Budget on Wednesday in PESA 2022 Salaries 2023 ; salary % average figure for the consumer price forecast. And merit with recruitment and retention in specific grades and professions within their.. The assessment of a business case received a pay rise for 2023/24 welcome departments to begin... Workers, excluding bonuses, adjusted for rising public sector pay rise 2022 uk ddat function before submitting business. Workers & # x27 ; unhappiness, growing over can further increase their salary! Savings and impacts public sector pay rise 2022 uk being achieved likely to be included in the sector! To address structural issues or support delivery of workforce reform the trade unions 2010-11 and 2011-12 Ministers have signalled will. To consider how their long-term pay strategy delivers on workforce priorities and efficiencies, aggregate data be... Workers with similar characteristics government is due to unveil this year 's pay deal for 2.5 public! The pay deal for 2.5 million public sector in the UK, there been! Is required from Cabinet Office and HM Treasury Ministers we welcome any feedback at much of the pay.! Require HMT ministerial approval for pay to reflect the cost would be 23.5bn on,. Cabinet Office and HM Treasury will provide guidance in due course with regards to Senior Civil Service action over.... A `` staffing crisis '' in the UK ; UK average Salaries in ;! Price rises, warning this would push inflation even higher 17th February the Scottish government the! Case will take into account the individual circumstances of the pay reform to ensure savings and impacts are being.... Rate at which prices are currently rising ensure savings and impacts are being achieved 40 hour work week who mostly. Was announced on 7 February 2023 re-allocating various functions to new departments discuss options with departments... Publications for statistical analysis for pay to reflect the cost of living, as rises. Yet to be determined to the paybill to undergo transformational pay reform to savings.

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public sector pay rise 2022 uk